Re-entry predictions
Satellites and rocket bodies about to fall back into the atmosphere: when, and how sure the prediction is.
Re-entering in the next 7 days
| Object | Predicted (your time) | Uncertainty | Size | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STARLINK-1305NORAD 45377 | Tue, Oct 20 · 5:02:00 PM | ± 9 h | large | US |
| STARLINK-1972NORAD 47627 | Wed, Oct 21 · 7:18:00 PM | ± 15 h | large | US |
| STARLINK-2131NORAD 47728 | Wed, Oct 21 · 4:44:00 PM | ± 14 h | large | US |
| STARLINK-2610NORAD 48376 | Tue, Oct 20 · 9:31:00 AM | ± 10 h | large | US |
| STARLINK-5041NORAD 53891 | Thu, Oct 22 · 12:53:00 AM | ± 19 h | large | US |
| COSMOS 2572NORAD 58435 | Mon, Oct 19 · 12:01:00 PM | ± 4 h | large | CIS |
Size is the radar size: large is over 1 m², small under 0.1 m².
Re-entered in the last 3 days
Times are the last predictions before re-entry. Most objects burn up completely.
| Object | Predicted (your time) | Uncertainty | Size | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORAD 54776 | Fri, Oct 16 · 8:28:00 PM | ± 1 min | – | – |
| PSLV R/BNORAD 51659 | Thu, Oct 15 · 9:59:00 PM | ± 1 min | large | IND |
Large objects in the 60-day forecast
0 objects in all are expected to re-enter 7 to 60 days from now, most of them small.
About re-entries
Satellites and rocket bodies in low orbit are slowly pulled down by the thin upper atmosphere until they re-enter. Most burn up entirely; large objects can drop a few fragments.
When exactly depends on the air density, which swings with solar activity. Days ahead the window is a day or more; only in the last hours does it shrink to tens of minutes. The uncertainty column shows that window.
We take USSPACECOM's Tracking and Impact Predictions (TIP) every hour. Their position is where the object reaches 10 km altitude, not where pieces land, so we do not draw it on a map.
Objects in very low orbit that will come down within weeks →
Re-entry predictions: Space-Track.org (USSPACECOM) TIP messages and decay forecasts.