Close calls in orbit
Objects passing within 10 km of the space stations, Hubble and Korea's Earth-watching satellites in the next two days, worked out from the public orbits.
Drag to turn · yellow: satellite · pink: the other object
ISS ↔ COSMOS 1470
About 4.3 km apart
Tue, Oct 20 · 2:55:09 PM · in 23 h 43 min
They pass at 13.9 km/s relative to each other, 15 times as fast as a rifle bullet. At that speed even a marble-sized fragment hits like a car crash.
How close is dangerous?
- Public orbits (TLEs) are only good to a kilometre or so, so these distances are estimates, not collision odds.
- Operators get precise warnings from the US Space Force and move their satellite when the odds pass about 1 in 10,000.
- The ISS has dodged debris more than 30 times; Starlink satellites make thousands of small avoidance moves a year.
- Most fragments come from a few events: the 2007 Chinese anti-satellite test, the 2009 Iridium–Cosmos collision and the 2021 Russian test.
Within 10 km of ISS, next 48 hours
Worked out at 2026-10-19 04:59 UTC from the public orbits; updated every six hours.